Very much agree with the rest of your post but this is a bit unkind to the idea presented by Martin - you're stumbling on the word he used, and as English is not his native tongue some slack is maybe appropriate. His post did make the underlying gist quite plain, and it's something I happen to believe is generally the way to go - so perhaps most likely would sit better?
Thanks Einion, point taken. I was certainly overstating the case. My apologies for any slights taken from that.
However, the point i was trying to make is that the conclusions drawn concerning what is "plausible" are subjective and largely dependent on the individual's knowledge of the subject and what reference sources they have access to. There are so many variables here that the only certainty is that different conclusions will be drawn by different folks at different times. And of course, this conundrum has been discussed here as well.
Reference sources and knowledge of the subject are always subjective. With more modern subjects, say WWII Germans, the amount of good first hand material, good photos and actual items available to be studied is quite large. So a determined person could find all the info he needs readily and without going much further than his web browser. Things do get more dicey as we go back in time. Certainly WWI, another subject i have had a lot of experience with, has a lot of evidentiary holes down which even a determined person could easily fall. And things only get more dicey and ambiguous going back in time and with the obscurity of a subject.
In such situations, educated guessing is the only alternative. And the quality of that activity will vary depending, again, on the individual's knowledge of subject, available reference sources and whatever they are wiling (or unwilling) to believe about them. Case in point:
When I did this Cossack figure for SK Miniatures, I was inspired by a set of period illustrations of Cossacks in Paris which were presumably done at the time. The dress of the Cossacks in the illustrations differed in many details from the broad selection of other references I had about Cossacks from this period.
What should I do? Should I follow the well worn paths of contemporary illustrations made by "experts" whose works are well known and broadly accepted as, more or less, authoritative? (I should also point out that ALL of the "authoritative" references showed differences in detail from one source to another. None of them agreed.) Or should i hew to the period illustrations that inspired me and, presumably, were made by somebody who actually witnessed the Cossacks in Paris? My choice was to do a little of both. I have little doubt that what the Cossacks wore at the time was far from universally "uniform" and varied in degrees between units and individuals.
So, I chose details that seemed to agree between some references and my primary inspirational sources. Then I chose other details arbitrarily: those details that i liked - carefully gleaned from my multiple reference sources. 100% accuracy? Not on your life. Historically likely? Yes, within certain limits. Just plain wrong? No doubt - in some details.
But I did the best I could given the conflicting nature of my references which were numerous. Then I simply picked whatever details
I liked to make an amalgam of conflicting details into something I could live with. I would never say that this figure is completely accurate. But I would say that it was an honest attempt to make something coherent out of the chaotic and ambiguous information I had.
The end result is arbitrary and subjective. It was all down to my choices. The only thing I could say was "most likely" or "plausible" about that is that I tried to avoid making stuff up. Sometimes you just have to make choices based on personal prejudices and personal aesthetics and hope that you get somewhere inside the ballpark. That is because the actual truth is something i could not possibly glean from conflicting sources.
And I think that justifies the basic premise of what i originally said - if not the hyperbolic way i said it. BTW, I chose the Cossack because i know it is something Martin could relate to....